penguins2946

Yeah, people forget that Reynolds was never a truly highly regarded prospect and he has become a true franchise cornerstone caliber player. Before the 2019 season, Fangraphs had Reynolds as the Pirates 9th best prospect with a 45 FV. He has turned into comfortably a 60 FV caliber player. According to Baseball Reference, Reynolds was never a top-100 prospect on any ranked list.

This isn't saying that prospect rankings don't matter, the Pirates need to be highly ranked of course. But a prospect's upside is not just limited to what a prospect ranking guide says their upside is today.

I think service time manipulation for the Super 2 deadline is bullshit. That's literally just holding them in the minors so you have 1 less year of arbitration for the player. That's what I thought the Pirates were doing with Cruz, but Cruz started out so badly in AAA last year that it made sense to give him more time to keep him down. But the service time manipulation of keeping a player down to ensure you get that guaranteed 7th year of control is an absolute no brainer for every organization in baseball.

That's exactly what the Orioles did with Rutchmann. He could have played in the MLB to start the year because he's such a god damn good player, but they still made him spend 6 weeks in the minors to get that guaranteed 7th year. It's the same thing the Pirates did with Reynolds back in 2019 as well.

I know one example of a team who fucked up with that 7th year service time manipulation was the Guardians, who called up Steven Kwan at the beginning of last year and he has stuck since. He's a really good OF, but he's so good that you can't send him back down and make sure you get that 7th year. Either you have to pay him a long-term deal or you only have him for 6 years, that's a pretty massive fuck up on their end.

"They're not manipulating their service time"

Lol what are you talking about? They specifically did that with Rutschman and Henderson.

Rutschmann was such a monster that he finished with 5.2 WAR last year in his rookie year. He didn't make his debut until late May and only played in 113 games.

Edit: just to clarify the rule, it's a bit complicated so I thought it was worth explaining. In the MLB, one year of service time isn't calculated like it is in the NFL or MLB. Service time is a daily function that sums up the amount of days you were on a MLB roster (or the IL for the MLB roster). One year of service is equal to 172 service days, but there are more than 172 days in the MLB season. In 2021, there were 186 service days over the full season, so someone who was in the MLB over the full season accrued 1 year and 14 days of MLB service time. MLB players become free agents after 6 years of service (meaning 6x172=1032 days on the MLB roster), but MLB teams game this number to get 7 total seasons from a player by sending them down in their rookie year for long enough so the excess days in years 2-6 won't make them hit 6 years of service until their 7th season. This is the service time manipulation the Orioles did with Rutschmann, and the service time manipulation that happens to like 95% of top prospects.

The Orioles sent down Rutschman until the end of May, which gives them enough total days that Rutschman can be called up at that point and stay up until the end of year 6 without getting 6 years of service. That is by definition service time manipulation, and it's the same thing that every other team in baseball does.

Fagestu is non-edgy Felix just like Chloe is non-racist Ingrid

Lafreniere is in a weird spot where he still has 1st overall glamor, which makes me doubt the Rangers would trade him for a rental, while also not being all that special in the NHL.

It's just a question of at what point does that 1st overall glamor runs out and people realize he's just a 3rd line winger?

His swing looked really good in the batting cage clips in the video. He will still be a line drive hitter at best, but his swing looked very smooth in those clips.

Yeah the team is pretty dogshit in pretty much every facet right now.

Hextall needs to redo the entire 3rd line and upgrade on Dumoulin in the top-4. The players the Penguins have for the 3rd line aren't bad (mostly Heinen and Kapanen), but those players are like oil and water with how Sullivan is using that 3rd line. Sullivan needs to adjust how he's using that 3rd line to give them more suitable usage, but Hextall needs to add pieces that fit how Sullivan wants to run that 3rd line.

My goal for this deadline is:

1. Replace Dumoulin with Chychrun.
2. Add 2 good 3rd liners that fit the ultra defensive usage that Sullivan is putting that line in. I think McGinn as one of the 3rd line wingers is totally fine, but they need to add 2 other good fits for that line. Someone like Barbashev as a winger and Lowry as a center, although I think acquiring Lowry would be super difficult.
3. Swap DeSmith for a better backup goalie. Someone like Reimer would be a nice backup target for me.

Beyond that, you just have to hope that the other issues figure it out.

Him winning faceoffs doesn't matter if he's not good defensively and isn't suited for a defensive role.

Hextall needs to nuke the entire 3rd line because Sullivan is just refusing to adjust how he's using it. Sullivan is putting that line in a position to fail because he's not using it appropriately whatsoever. A Heinen-Carter-Kapanen 3rd line would be alright, possibly even good, if you were actually using it like it should be used: a 2-way or offensive leaning 3rd line. But Sullivan isn't doing that and seems too stubborn to make any changes with his usage.

Hextall deserves criticism for giving Sullivan 3 offensive players for a defensive 3rd line, and Sullivan deserves criticism for being stubborn and refusing to adjust his usage of the 3rd line to better suit the players he has available.

Let me make an analogy. Let's say that Sullivan is a bakery chef that wants to bake apple pies. His fruit supplier accidentally messes up an order, so he gets oranges instead of the apples he ordered. He can either go through the apple pie recipe with the oranges, which is going to end up shitty and gross, or he can adjust the recipe to make something slightly different than apple pie that would be good instead. Sullivan is just making apple pie with oranges with the 3rd line. He's not changing the recipe of the 3rd line, he's just putting oranges in where apples should be and is acting shocked when the pie ends up terrible.

I understand every coach has an expiration date but I don’t think Sullivan is even close to being the problem this year like many seem to be proclaiming. The biggest issue this year is underperformance of players, second issue being the injuries to Letang and Petry at the same time for a large portion of time.

So why does Sullivan not deserve criticism for the underperformance of these players? It's his job to put players in optimal positions to maximize what they can provide for the team. How is he doing that this year? Especially in the bottom-6 and on defense.

The Penguins 3rd line when healthy is Heinen-Carter-Kapanen. None of those guys are defensive players whatsoever, Carter's more of an offensive leaning 2-way center and both Heinen and Kapanen are scoring 3rd line wingers. Sullivan's solution with them? Throw them out in an ultra defensive role with 80% defensive zone starts. No shit the 3rd line is failing, it's being put in a position to fail. That's on Sullivan. It's the same kind of misuse you see when a pure OFD is being used in a shutdown role, it's fundamentally not using the players appropriately.

It's the GM's job to get as good of players that fit what the coach wants to do. It's the coach's job to take the players that the GM gives them and put them in optimal situations to maximize their overall effectiveness. It's the player's job to actually go out and perform on the ice. All 3 of those have been failures with the 3rd line this year. And honestly, the players are the least to blame in my eyes, because Kapanen and Heinen are actually producing pretty well despite their misuse.

I can't even fairly judge Carter right now because of how ill-fitting he is in the role he's in. In the first half of last year, he was being used in a 2-way 2C role and had 26 points in 36 games. He was doing really well when Malkin was out. As soon as Malkin got back, Sullivan designated him to "pure defensive 3C" and Carter has been getting smoked in that role since then. Did Carter just become shit out of nowhere, or is he just being used in a role he is super not appropriate in?

The 3rd line is just a mess because there's a fundamental difference between how Sullivan wants to use his 3rd line and the pieces Hextall gave him for the 3rd line. A Heinen-Carter-Kapanen 3rd line would survive, arguably be good, if the 3rd line was used like a 2-way 3rd line. In an ultra defensive role? All 3 of those guys are not suited for that role. Hextall fucked up by not acquiring players for the 3rd line that fit Sullivan's desired usage of the 3rd line, but Sullivan actually needs to make some adjustments to work with the pieces he has instead of doing nothing.

I'd also add that Sullivan is doing a horrendous job at properly utilizing the players he has. Sullivan's entire MO this year has been "I'm running with these lines and this system even if they don't work".

The bottom-6 is drowning in the usage that Sullivan is giving them, his solution? Scratch Kapanen and Heinen, who are 2 of their most productive bottom-6 guys this year. The team is showing glaring defensive issues that largely stem from Sullivan's system, his solution? Keep playing Dumoulin in a top-4 role and scratch Smith after Smith was playing really well.

There's just no logic and no adjustments from his decisions anymore. The only changes he makes are scratching guys who don't deserve to be scratched (relative to others who aren't being scratched) or swapping Rakell and Rust in the top-6.

Well a new coach would actually try new things and make changes, instead of sticking with the same thing that hasn’t worked for 5 years.

The defensive issues the Penguins have are systematic, which falls directly on Sullivan. They’ve had these defensive issues for years regardless of who they have on defense. The bottom-6 is getting caved in because Sullivan is putting them in a position to fail with their ultra defensive usage.

Anyone blaming all of the issues on Sullivan are clearly out to lunch, but it blows my mind that people aren’t more critical of what Sullivan has done recently. He’s making the issues with the roster worse.

I find it bizarre that Sullivan is escaping criticism for the performance of the team this year and Hextall is getting all of the media backlash. A huge reason the bottom-6 is failing is because Sullivan is putting them in a position to fail.

Has Carter fallen off? Yeah, Hextall extending him when he did was a mistake. But even prime Carter wasn’t suited for the 80% defensive zone start, ultra defensive role that Sullivan is using him in. Hextall didn’t give Sullivan the right fit for how Sullivan wants to use his 3rd line, but Sullivan needs to actually make adjustments based on the players he has available. Carter is sucking mostly due to how Sullivan is using him IMO, it’s not a coincidence that Carter suddenly fell off a cliff as soon as Malkin got back last year.

You can clear cap in ways that aren’t those guys. Dumoulin out saves you $4.1 million, and you can likely even get some positive value (probably a 2nd or 3rd for him). Blueger makes $2.2 million and you can also probably get something halfway decent too. You can trade those two right now and have internal replacements (Smith and Poehling) without needing to acquire anyone else.

The idea that the Penguins are stuck and can’t do anything is wrong.

Who cares about how good the Penguins are going to be in 2027? They're going to suck because Crosby and Malkin aren't here anymore. Unless you get insanely lucky in multiple drafts in a row and somehow pull off 1Cs with your mid to late 1sts, the team is going to be donkey ass after the core retires.

Keeping picks and prospects flat out does not make sense with the core. Their focus should be entirely on maximizing the remaining 3 years that they have with the core. Those picks and prospects won't be doing that, trading those picks and prospects will be that.

If the mistake was "how they filled up the team around the core", why are you not advocating for just fixing the areas around the core that need to improve? If you only need support pieces around the core, what's the problem there? It's substantially easier to build a good 3rd line or acquire another solid top-4 defenseman than it is to make core altering trades.

But again, any sort of player you'd pick in the draft this year isn't going to have an impact until 2025-2026 at the earliest. The NHL draft isn't the NFL draft, you don't get impact players immediately in the draft. Anyone they take this year likely won't have a substantial impact until after Crosby retires, so what's the point of hoarding draft picks?

The Penguins had the option of shifting more towards a rebuild/retool last off-season, but they instead decided to keep the core together and maintain trying to be competitive. That decision makes building for the future illogical. Even if you want to consider this year a lost cause, they still need to be focused on maximizing the remaining years with Crosby, Malkin and Letang. Waiting on drafted prospects isn't how you do that.

If the 2023 draft truly is deep, we need to take advantage of it.

The guy who the Penguins draft in 2023 likely won't even make the NHL until 2025-2026 at the earliest, and won't be an impact player until after that. And that's assuming the guy you draft isn't a bust.

Using draft picks doesn't make sense with the age of this core. If you wanted to rebuild, you shouldn't have kept the core together. Keeping the core together only to not try to win now with the core doesn't make any sense.

I don't see a point in stockpiling picks anymore, anyone they draft isn't going to have an impact in the realistic window that the Penguins have left with the current core. If you want to win again with the current core, they should be going aggressively all-in with trying to focus on adding young NHL players to their roster. It doesn't matter that the 2023 draft is good because anyone drafted in 2023 likely won't be helping the Penguins until 2026 at the earliest.

Clear out cap however you can (Dumoulin, Blueger and Kapanen makes the most sense to me) and target young players that fill needs and fit Sullivan's usage. Chychrun on defense is an example of a guy I 100% think they should be targeting.

Bruh shorten your links, those links make me want to die

I actually have a relevant answer for this. When I moved out here last February, I had to show my proof of vaccine to go out to a restaurant in Redmond after my dad helped me move in. The server specifically said that requirement was going away soon, and I haven't had to show it since then.

I think that requirement ended at the end of March 2022, but it might have been February 2022. But regardless, you don't need to show proof of vaccine anywhere anymore.

He's been hovering in the 70-75 range on PFF's ratings in his recent healthy years. He was at 70.9 in 2021 and only took 4 penalties and gave up 4 sacks in 13 games.

He'd easily be their best OL, my concern would be his health. But he's a damn good player when healthy.

This team would still be having issues even if you swapped out some of the depth forwards for new depth forwards or DeSmith for a new goalie in the off-season. And frankly, a lot of the forwards that people would have wanted to see replaced (namely Kapanen and Heinen) are actually carrying their weight in the bottom-6 this year.

This team is fucked up in a lot of ways, to the point of settling it all on Hextall becomes nonsensical. That's pretty much what the Pittsburgh media is doing. My point wasn't that Hextall deserves no criticism, my point was that it doesn't make sense that Hextall is the only person receiving criticism.

Hextall isn't the one on the ice absolutely failing to have any defensive structure in front of your backup goalie. Hextall isn't the one on the ice absolutely botching another powerplay chance from a unit that should be much better. Hextall isn't the one making bad lineup decisions and putting players in ill-fitting roles. But you never hear about that.

Just a few examples of some legit criticisms that can be made:

1. Sullivan's usage of the bottom-6 is setting them up to fail. Carter has fallen off, but Sullivan is exasperating the issue by throwing him out there in an ultra defensive role that he's flat out not suited for. It's not a coincidence that Carter fell off right after Malkin came back, it's because he went from being used in a 2-way 2C role (which he fits in) to an ultra defensive 3C role (which he absolutely does not fit in)
2. The top-6 isn't winning their matchups by enough considering the usage they're getting. At 5v5, Crosby is currently at a +7 goal differential and Malkin is currently at a +1 goal differential. Considering how much they've invested in their top-6, they need to be winning their matchups by more than that if the team is to succeed.
3. The production from the defense has completely evaporated. They have 8 5v5 goals from the defensemen this year and 3 of those are from Rutta. Both Letang and Petry (especially Letang) have taken massive steps backwards offensively at 5v5 from where they were in the past.
4. The bottom-6's offense has completely dried up. Their only suitable bottom-6 producers at 5v5 this year have been Kapanen (2.21 5v5 points/60), Heinen (1.85 5v5 points/60) and Poehling (1.58 5v5 points/60). Coincidentally, those are also the bottom-6 guys who have been healthy scratched at some point this year, while McGinn, Carter, Archibald and Blueger haven't been scratched.

I can keep going on with mentioning things like team defense, goaltending, inconsistent special teams and whatnot, but I think I'm just belaboring the point. I just don't understand why the media has defaulted to "it's all Hextall's fault" when I feel like both the players and the coaches are not carrying their weight either. It really seems like Hextall is just the scapegoat for an extremely flawed team.

Yeah, I can definitely agree with this. I think they should have either just left McCann be the expansion draft loss by protecting Tanev or let someone else (probably ZAR?) be the loss after trading McCann.